As results rolled in on March 5th, the scene at Zero Gravity was raucous. Whispers circulated—could it be? Had we won? We waited for the pesky Ward 5 to get called, with Emma Mulvaney-Stanak (EMS) in the lead by about 1,000 votes. The tension was palpable. 

Ward 5 came in. The crowd let out a cheer twelve years in the making. Progressives would regain control over the mayorship, flip a key Council seat, and overpower the old guard of Democratic politics. Emma’s team of 300 volunteers had defeated the so-called “All Hands on Deck movement.” 

Emma Mulvaney-Stanak, the first queer person and first woman to ever become Mayor of Burlington, is a political unicorn in Queen City politics. Her progressive credentials are unparalleled; a longtime Progressive Party member, EMS served as the chair of the statewide party, and was one of only two Progressives on the city council in the wake of the Kiss Administration.  Despite this, EMS ran a campaign that specifically catered to liberal Democrats. Amid a media environment laser-focused on public safety, EMS managed to broaden the conversation and reach across the proverbial aisle. “Dems for Emma” events scattered the city and the new mayor won over disaffected Democrats opposed to Joan Shannon. The results tell a clear story of this split-ticket voting:

Ward	Emma Mulvaney-Stanak (Votes, %)	Progressive City Council Candidate (Votes, %)	Net difference between EMS and council candidate
1	950, 62%	832, 55%	+118, +7%
2	1373, 72%	1520, 97%*	-147, -25%
3	1043, 64%	1078, 67%**	-35, -3%
4	856, 35%	600, 26%	+256, +9%
5	1075, 46%	759, 33%***	+316, +13%
6	825, 44%	519, 29%	+306, +15%
7	867, 39%	718, 33%	+149, +6%
8	623, 72%	485, 57%	+138, +15%
TOTAL	7612, 51.4%	6,511, 46.9%	+1,101, 4.5%

*Ran Uncontested
**Ran against a Democratic write in campaign and a Republican
***Ran as an independent endorsed by the Progressives 

Excluding Wards 2 and 3, which are exceptional in that the Progressive city council candidate did not run against serious Democratic competition, here are the same numbers:

Overall (6 Wards)

5,196, 46.5%

3,913, 35.7%

+1,283, +10.8%

The data is clear: EMS overperformed other Progressives substantially, and had she lost those ticket-splitting Democrats, especially in the NNE and Shannon’s home turf in the South End, she would have come up shy of 50%. EMS is indebted to those voters who may identify as solidly Democratic, but crossed over to vote for her.

Now, Burlington Democratic operatives may be asking themselves: why didn’t those liberal Democrats stick with their party label? They might have been turned off by Shannon’s coziness with Republicans like former councilors Kurt Wright and Dave Hartnett (D/R, eventually an independent). In the Democratic caucus for mayor, Hartnett and Wright worked tirelessly to connect Karen Paul, who ran as a liberal Democrat, to the 2020 council that “defunded” the police department. Paul did support the infamous 2020 vote, which despite the troubling rebrand by Democrats, did not actually cut funding for the police department, and did declare racism a public health emergency. This capitulation to a Progressive-led effort was an unforgivable sin in the eyes of the old guard, leading to implications that Paul was potentially just as dangerous as a Progressive mayor.

As their target went from Paul to EMS, the right flank of the Burlington Democratic Party did not pivot for a tough general election; they doubled down, going all in on a law and order approach—perhaps to the point of alienating those liberal Democrats. Further dooming this strategy was Ali Dieng’s support of EMS, after Paul lost the Democratic nomination. Dieng is an outgoing independent city councilor in the New North End, a stronghold for Shannon and the Democrats that Mulvaney-Stanak was able to chip away at in 2024.

Even Karen Paul herself, a long-time independent before becoming a Democrat, stayed mostly quiet until supporting Shannon more vocally in the final few weeks before Election Day. This epitomizes the split in the Burlington Dems between those who desperately wanted to see a public safety hawk in office, and those who did not see Shannon as Burlington’s sole potential savior.

The Shannon campaign, which prioritized public safety to the detriment of other issue areas; welcomed and championed Republicans; enjoyed mass media coverage; and had almost double the money of the Mulvaney-Stanak campaign, was unable to hold onto Democratic votes. Liberal Democrats, stuck without a clear standard bearer like Paul, were forced to choose, and they chose EMS.

The new administration will likely cater to those crossover voters to ensure re-election in 2027—something to watch closely going forward. 

Now with new excitement rushing into City Hall, EMS must learn to work with a group of Progressive councilors who campaigned to her left, and Democratic councilors who mostly lined up behind Joan Shannon. Mayor Mulvaney-Stanak has got some heavy lifting ahead to make sure she and the Council can move together on the most critical issues.

This article has been lightly edited to reflect that Councilor Becca Brown McKnight made no endorsement in the Burlington mayoral election.

Article written by the Burlington Eye Collective